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    Forecast Graph

    The forecast graph shows, where possible, the share price over the last five years relative to its index. In addition, it shows the share’s historical P/E, a moving average, and a forward projection of the share’s price based on historical P/Es and consensus forecast earnings. Weekly closing prices are used where more than three years data is available. For less than three years daily data is used.

     The example above shows the elements of each graph. The thick black line is the daily or weekly closing price of the share (left hand scale). The thick green line is the movement of the sector index. The thin blue line is a moving average, and the thin pink line is the share’s P/E (right hand scale). Note that the relative index is adjusted to start at the same point as the share price, and the index scale is not shown.
    The share price projections are based on the forward price calculations found below the consensus figures. The top (purple) line represents the potential price if the highest earnings estimate is achieved and the share enjoys a high rating (ie, high P/E, high earnings estimate). The bottom turquoise line shows the potential price if the worst case earnings estimate comes true and the share suffers a poor rating (ie, low P/E, low estimate).

    Please note that these projections are not a prediction of future share prices, only an illustration of the possible price at historic P/E levels if earnings estimates prove to be true.

    These graphs are updated weekly subject to availability of forecasts from contributing stockbroking firms.


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