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| Thu 26 Jun 2025, 9:10 | | Thungela - pre-close statement of CFO |
| View SENS |
Key insights into our performance for the period 1 January 2025 to 31 May 2025 (the year to date2) and our expectations for the six-months ending 30 June 2025 (H1 2025), with guidance references relating to the full year.
• Benchmark coal prices continued to soften in 2025 with the Richards Bay Benchmark coal price(3) averaging USD91.74 per tonne for the year to date, compared to USD105.30 per tonne for FY 2024. The Newcastle Benchmark coal price(4) saw a steeper weakening, averaging USD101.71 per tonne for the year to date, compared to USD134.85 per tonne for FY 2024.
• Discount to the Richards Bay Benchmark coal price is approximately 14.6% for the year to date, compared to 13.1% for FY 2024. This reflects the weakening market, bearish demand and wider grade discount differential for all products to date in 2025. The average realised export price for product sold through Richards Bay Coal Terminal for the year to date is USD78.37 per tonne, compared to USD91.56 per tonne for FY 2024.
• Premium to the Newcastle Benchmark coal price has been approximately 8.1% for the year to date, compared to a discount of 8.0% for FY 2024. The average realised export price in Australia was USD109.93 per tonne, compared to USD124.00 per tonne for FY 2024. The premium is as a result of a number of fixed price contracts, representing approximately 70% of volumes sold, which were agreed at prices well above the Newcastle Benchmark coal price for the reporting period. A portion of these fixed price contract sales, representing approximately 25% of all sales in H1 2025, is however subject to an adjustment once ongoing negotiations have been completed. Revenue pertaining to these sales has therefore been recognised at a lower realised price to reflect earnings at an appropriate market related price. Final settlement of the 2025 price will accordingly trigger a price adjustment for tonnes already sold, which will have a limited impact on earnings.
• Export saleable production in South Africa is expected to be approximately 6.4Mt for H1 2025, compared to 6.2Mt in H1 2024. The increase in production is mainly as a result of improved rail performance and incremental production at our underground operations. Production at the opencast operations was impacted by higher rainfall earlier in the year. Our full year production guidance remains appropriate as we expect further improvements to production in the second half of the year.
• FOB cost per export tonne excluding royalties for South Africa for H1 2025 is expected to be marginally above the upper end of the guidance range of between R1 210 to R1 290 per tonne, mainly due to the lower domestic revenue offset from Isibonelo, where production was impacted by the higher rainfall. Including royalties, the FOB cost per export tonne in H1 2025 is also expected to be marginally above the upper end of the guidance range of R1 220 to R1 300 per tonne. Our full year cost guidance remains appropriate in line with the improved production expected in the second half of the year.
• Export equity sales for South Africa is expected to be approximately 6.2Mt for H1 2025, compared to 6.0Mt for H1 2024, mainly due to the improved rail performance.
• Export saleable production at Ensham(5) for H1 2025 is expected to be approximately 1.6Mt (on a 100% basis), compared to 2.1Mt (on a 100% basis) in H1 2024. This is as a result of the development through more challenging geological conditions in the first half of the year. Production is expected to improve in the second half of the year. Our full year production guidance remains appropriate.
• FOB cost per export tonne excluding royalties at Ensham for H1 2025 is expected to be above the upper end of the guidance range of between R1 470 to R1 580 per tonne, mainly as a result of the lower production in H1 2025. Including royalties, the FOB cost per export tonne in H1 2025 is also expected to be higher than the guidance range of R1 650 to R1 780 per tonne. Our full year guidance remains appropriate as we expect improved production in the second half of the year.
• Export equity sales for Ensham5 is expected to be approximately 1.7Mt for H1 2025, on a 100% basis, compared to 2.1Mt in H1 2024.
• Capital expenditure for the South African operations for H1 2025 is expected to be approximately R1.1 billion. This consists of approximately R600 million relating to sustaining capital. We expect a higher capital expenditure run rate in the second half of the year and accordingly the full year guidance range of between R1 400 to R1 700 million remains appropriate. Expansionary capital of approximately R550 million includes the ongoing spend on the Zibulo North Shaft project and the Lephalale Coal Bed Methane project and is in line with the guidance range of between R1 100 to R1 200 million.
• Sustaining capital expenditure at Ensham for H1 2025 is expected to be approximately R127 million (on a 100% basis). This is mainly due to the sustaining capital programme being weighted towards the second half of the year and a one- off capital expenditure expected in the latter part of the year to secure outstanding mining licenses. Overall, capital expenditure is expected to remain within the guidance range of R700 to R950 million.
Investor call details
A conference call and audio webinar relating to the details of this announcement will be held at 12:00 SAST on Thursday, 26 June 2025. A recording of the audio webinar will be made available on the Thungela website on the same date – www.thungela.com/investors.
Conference call registration:
services.choruscall.eu/DiamondPassRegistration/register?confirmationNumber=7 688479&linkSecurityString=121b643bdd
Audio webinar registration:
ccmediaframe.com/?id=g9ZdyjkF
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