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Fri 20 Mar 2026
Close: 21999c 
Day's move: 449c (+2.08%)
Volume: 3 001 563
Trades: 6 254
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Revenue for the year grew to R41.8 billion (R40.7 billion) whilst operating profit dipped to R7.1 billion (R7.6 billion). Profit attributable to owners lowered to R7.6 billion (R7.7 billion). Furthermore, headline earnings per share were higher at 3 247 cents per share (3 016 cents per share).
Final cash dividend
At the board of directors meeting on 17 March 2026, the directors approved a gross final dividend of 1 000 cents per share. The final dividend is payable on 11 May 2026 to shareholders who will be on the register on 8 May 2026. The final dividend was declared from income generated during the year ended 31 December 2025 and has been declared from income reserves.
Company outlook 1H26
Economic context
The current year commenced against a backdrop of heightened geopolitical and related risks. Global uncertainty increased meaningfully due to evolving developments in Venezuela, Iran, and Greenland, alongside the continued unpredictability surrounding US trade policy.
Domestically, South Africa recorded modest real GDP growth in FY25, with this positive momentum expected to extend into 2026. Structural reforms across the energy, water, ports, and rail sectors progressed steadily, supported by a strong emphasis on public private partnerships aimed at strengthening public sector infrastructure.
South Africa’s removal from the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) grey list in October 2025, coupled with S&P Global Ratings’ upgrade of the foreign currency sovereign credit rating from BBto BB in November 2025, while maintaining a positive outlook, represents significant progress toward regaining an investment-grade rating.
Commodity markets and prices
Adequate thermal coal and gas inventories, combined with a milder northern hemisphere winter, limited the typical year end price uplift in FY25. However, reduced nuclear availability in South Korea, cutbacks in Colombia’s thermal coal supply, and the potential for restricted US export availability provided a more supportive backdrop heading into 2026.
Looking ahead, China and India’s increasing focus on domestic coal production, rising renewable energy penetration, and expectations of stronger gas price competition in key markets are likely to shape market dynamics in 2026. While the global transition toward renewables continues to define longer term trends, short term supply constraints, the expansion of electrification, and broader global economic and geopolitical developments will remain important drivers of thermal coal demand and pricing.
The Middle East conflict presents a material risk to global energy security and freight markets. Any prolonged or broader regional destabilisation would disrupt energy security and bulk shipping, tightening global oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) supply. This would likely increase reliance on alternative fuels, supporting higher thermal coal demand and prices.
Domestically, improved economic activity may stimulate coal demand, particularly as Eskom advances in resolving operational challenges. In spite of TFR’s improving performance, it remains well below RBCT’s port capacity, therefore Exxaro continues to pursue all commercially viable routes to meet customer needs and unlock value.
In the iron ore market, rising supply is returning with the commissioning of the Simandou project, Africa’s largest greenfield integrated mining and infrastructure development in Guinea, together with the subdued demand from China.
Operational performance outlook
Our business is still impacted by commodity prices, domestic structural challenges, coal offtake and both the global and domestic geopolitical environment.
We provide the following guidance for the 2026 financial year:
• Coal production 39.4Mt to 42.8Mt
• Coal sales 39.4Mt to 42.8Mt
• Coal export sales to be between 7.3Mt to 8.0Mt
• Our coal sustaining capital is guided to be within R4 billion and R4.5 billion. The increase is mainly driven by our truck and shovel replacement programme at Grootegeluk mine to maintain production levels, drive operational efficiency and to improve reliability, availability and sustainability.
• With the commissioning of the Lephalale solar plant, as well the forecasted contribution from the Gouda windfarm and Sishen solar plant, our energy generation guidance increases, and we expect it to be within the range of 1 050GWh and 1 150GWh of full year wind and solar energy generation.
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| Closing price data source: JSE Ltd. All other statistics calculated by ProfileData. |
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