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Fri 18 Sep 2026
Close: 17 481c 
Day's move: -715c (-3.93%)
Volume: 528 223
Trades: 2 475
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Revenue for the year grew to R16.323 billion (R13.027 billion) and gross profit recovered to R4.397 billion (loss of R190.0 million). Profit from operations before capital items turned around to R3.162 billion (loss of R567.0 million). Profit for the year attributable to equity holders of ARM went up to R3.998 billion (R330.0 million). Additionally, headline earnings per share increased to 1 660 cents per share (1 379 cents per share).
Dividend declaration
For F2026, the board approved and declared a final dividend of 700 cents per share (gross) (F2025: 600 cents per share). The amount to be paid is approximately R1 461 million.
Company outlook
According to the International Monetary Fund, global economic growth is projected to slow to 3.1% for the remainder of 2026, before edging up to 3.2% in 2027. This is below the pace of about 3.4% recorded in 2024 to 2025. The outbreak of war in the Middle East and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz have lifted energy prices and pushed global headline inflation up to 4.4% in 2026. Advanced economies continue to grow slowly amid tighter financial conditions, while many commodity-importing emerging markets remain constrained by debt burdens and elevated fragility. Downside risks persist, including the potential for a prolonged or wider conflict, a renewed surge in energy prices and heightened geopolitical tensions, any of which could weigh on economic growth and disrupt global supply chains.
South Africa’s economic outlook remains resilient, though the Middle East conflict has interrupted global disinflation and lifted the inflation outlook, with oil, gas and other commodity prices rising sharply. As major central banks pause rate cuts amid heightened uncertainty, South African assets have proven relatively resilient, underpinned by improved macro-economic fundamentals. These spillovers are expected to delay rather than derail the return to the 3% inflation target set by the South African Reserve Bank. Headline inflation is projected to rise for the remainder of 2026 before returning to target by late 2027. Domestic growth strengthened to 1.1% in 2025 and is expected to approach 2% by 2028, with resilience increasingly dependent on domestic factors and continued structural reform.
Iron ore prices rallied and then fell in the first half of 2026, with the swing driven mainly by costs rather than market fundamentals. Surging bunker and freight costs caused by the US/Iran conflict pushed prices higher. However, the late-June US-Iran Memorandum of Understanding eased fears over the Strait of Hormuz, which deflated the risk premium and drove freight costs sharply lower; this pulled prices back to pre-war levels. With the cost support having faded, weak fundamentals now dominate, including ample supply, record year-to-date imports in May that kept Chinese port stocks elevated and a structural decline in demand that leaves global demand broadly flat. On the supply side, rising energy and freight costs pressured higher-cost producers, which included Brazilian juniors, Canadian and West African operations, while the majors held output steady. Simandou continued to ramp up quickly despite wet-season disruptions. The medium-term outlook remains bearish, with softer prices and compressed high-grade premiums weighing on South African exporters. This highlights the need for cost discipline and product quality, although a rising cost floor should support a more constructive medium-term outlook.
Similar to the iron ore market, during 2026, the manganese market was driven by cost inflation rather than market fundamentals. The US/Iran conflict lifted manganese ore costs through higher oil and diesel prices; with trucking to South African ports particularly affected, prices eased by the end of July as the cost push faded. Supply has been strong year to date, with South African exports robust on recovering Transnet rail performance and improved trucking capacity. Chinese manganese ore imports surged, pushing port stocks higher as imports exceeded demand. Demand, however, is softening, led by China, where lower steel output is reducing ferroalloy production and, in turn, manganese ore requirements, leaving the market oversupplied in certain segments. The short-term outlook remains bearish, with softer Chinese smelter demand and elevated port stocks reinforcing the downside. Over the medium term, however, the outlook firms, as a higher cost floor and tighter supply are expected to lift prices modestly.
PGM prices rallied in early 2026 before retreating below their opening levels, though they remain above 2025 averages. Amended European CO2 legislation, requiring a 90% emissions cut rather than an outright 2035 ban on internal combustion engines, is expected to prolong the use of PGM-containing autocatalysts. The long-term demand outlook remains constructive despite the headwinds from BEV penetration. Industrial platinum demand is expected to grow, led by glass and hard disc drive demand, while palladium demand over the long term is supported by a widening gold-to-palladium ratio and data-centre-driven electrical substitution. Rhodium demand is forecast to grow at a robust compound annual growth rate of 2.5% by 2040, underpinned by new glass capacity and steady nitric acid production. On the supply side, primary PGM output is forecast to decline over the medium to long term, with South Africa remaining the dominant source of supply pressure given accelerating Merensky and UG2 shaft depletion and persistent underinvestment, while Zimbabwe and North America face further structural decline. Together, these dynamics point to a supportive PGM price outlook over the medium to long term.
Nickel shifted to a higher trading range in 2026, with the market still reluctant to price a sustained deficit as inventories remain elevated. The defining development was Indonesia’s April 2026 policy revision, which lifted cost support and effectively set the marginal cost of supply. Demand is expected to improve, driven mainly by stainless steel production. In addition, demand will likely be supported by infrastructure, shipbuilding, autos, appliances and a recovery in battery demand. On the supply side, global output is anticipated to fall in the near term, as binding Indonesian policy curtails supply. The medium term outlook is not yet a deficit story, as inventories remain elevated and supply growth should resume beyond 2026.
The thermal coal market has undergone structural decline while exhibiting short-term resilience. Prices rose through the second quarter of 2026 as the Middle East conflict lifted the liquefied natural gas (LNG) prices and resulted in gas-to-coal switching being economical, before easing as the Strait of Hormuz began to reopen.
This substitution-driven strength lifted first-half prices and the annual average, rather than reflecting genuine demand growth, leaving a weaker second half. Thermal coal prices are expected to remain subdued over the medium term due to weaker demand, robust supply and higher renewable output.
Despite the ongoing commodity market volatility, ARM remains optimistic about the medium to long-term outlook for the mining sector and the commodities we mine and beneficiate. With a portfolio of quality, long-life assets and world-class ore bodies, ARM is well-positioned to navigate the uncertain commodity and economic environment. We continue to strengthen resilience by driving productivity and improving cost efficiency and disciplined capital allocation. ARM is committed to creating sustainable value for our shareholders and all stakeholders.
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| Closing price data source: JSE Ltd. All other statistics calculated by ProfileData. |
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